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How Many Oscars Will Black Panther Actually Win?

oscar-nominations-2019-black-panther-lead

When news broke this morning that Marvel’s Black Panther landed seven Oscar nominations, many fans viewed this as a giant leap forward for the reputability of superhero movies. However, the film’s actual triumph is less impressive when you consider the category-by-category breakdown.

While there’s no denying that Black Panther’s nod for Best Picture is a major breakthrough, the film’s other nominations are in relatively minor categories that have been comprised of similar movies in the past. In any case, there’s a good chance that Wakanda will be celebrating on Oscar night—but how many Academy Awards will Black Panther actually win?

Production Design / Costume Design

These are both well-deserved nominations, but Oscar history tells us that the award for costume design is more likely to go to a realistic costume drama than a science fiction or fantasy movie (though recent winners have included Mad Max: Fury Road and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them), giving a slight edge to The Favourite. Having created a vivid world of its own, Black Panther is far more likely to win the Oscar for production design, making that its first win of the night.

Original Song / Original Score

Not many people are betting against Kendrick Lamar in 2019, but the momentum for original song seems to be behind Lady Gaga’s “Shallow” (from A Star is Born). While original score is a more likely win for Black Panther, Nicholas Britell’s powerful score for If Beale Street Could Talk is the more resonant, memorable choice—and the most likely winner.

Sound Mixing / Sound Editing

Good news, Black Panther fans: sound mixing and sound editing are the categories where the Academy always honours genre movies. In just the last five years, winners in these categories have included Arrival, Dunkirk, Gravity, and Mad Max: Fury Road. With that in mind, expect Black Panther to win both awards, bringing its Oscar total to three.

Best Picture

This is obviously the big one, the award that Marvel and Disney are likely to spend most of their campaign dollars on, but does Black Panther really have a chance?  As the biggest domestic hit of 2018, it’s definitely the popular favourite. However, Black Panther’s lack of any other major nominations (Best Director, Best Screenplay, all four acting categories) makes it an extremely unlikely Best Picture winner. In other words, we’re predicting three wins for Black Panther, but this year’s field of eight Best Picture nominees is a little confusing and Black Panther seems to be one of the four frontrunners, along with Green Book, Roma, and A Star Is Born… so there is a chance those three wins could become four, shocking everyone and making superhero movie history.

 

Black Panther is now available on home video and streaming. Check out the trailer below, and watch the Oscars live on CTV on February 24 8e 5p.